Friday, 20 May 2016

CAGR, XIRR, Rolling Return...



The above 3 terms we see often when we look for return history of a fund. How these measures differ from each other and at what context they are to be used? (We will not discuss any formula here, just plain understanding of the terms)

Say 5 years back two funds' NFOs got opened - fund A and fund B - at NAV 10. Now after 5 years say both funds' NAV stands at 20. What is compounded annualised return (CAGR) here?

Simple. Use 'rate' function in Excel. Remember CAGR is not per year return or not average return. It is compounded annualised growth rate. So CAGR is not going to be 20% but somewhere near 15%. So both funds' CAGR will be same. Fine.

Now there could be two different scenarios -

1) Say, fund A's NAV stayed most of the time close to 10 - 12 and sometime even below 10 and then suddenly in last 1 quarter it's NAV suddenly spiked up and reached 15. Whereas fund B's NAV grew at a regular fashion throughout this 5 years. Though both fund's CAGR shows here the same number but which one is a better performer? Ofcourse Fund B!

Rolling Return will help us here to find out which fund is a more consistent performer. 

2) If there are intermediate transactions in between this 5 years, CAGR will not reflect those. What could be intermediate transactions? Those could be dividend payouts, partial withdrawals or additional investments etc. 

XIRR will consider such transactions and shows us the right figure to compare both funds' performances in such cases.

Thursday, 19 May 2016

NPS Money At Maturity.


Santa: Tax, no tax, partial tax... koi mujhe batayega... what will happen to my NPS money at maturity?

Banta: Say, on maturity total money in your NPS a/c is Rs.100.

Santa: Ok.

Banta: Now straightaway you have to buy annuity papers from some or other insurance companies of Rs. 40. No escape from this. And remember the pension or annuity income that you will receive from these papers will be fully taxable.

Santa: Ok (100 - 40) = 60
So I am now left with Rs. 60.

Banta: Yes. Now pay tax on Rs. 20. Say, you are in tax bracket of 30%. So pay tax of Rs. 6 (30% of 20). 

Santa: (60 - 6) = 54, so finally I will be left with Rs. 54 in my hand at maturity, which I can spend at my wish, right?

Banta: Right! Remember this magic number 0.54 then.

Santa: Ek example do.

Banta: Jaise ki socho you have accumulated total Rs. 75 lakhs in your NPS a/c. So after buying annuity and paying tax, how much money you will be left with?

Santa: Kitna?

Banta: Simple... 75 × 0.54 = 40.5 lakhs!

Santa: Ok, so...

NPS money at maturity × 0.54 = Money in hand

Santa: Yes!

Where does this road lead to?


“Where does this road lead to?” I was surprised that two people asked me the same question on a single day. I had gone for a morning walk and within just 10 minutes, two persons asked me this.

My answer to both was, “Where do you want to go?” The moment they told me the destination, it was easy for me to guide them which way to go. They both knew their destination and still asked a wrong question. Had I tried to answer the question without probing, I could have told them anything. The chances are high that my answer would not have been of any help to either.

While reaching the destination is more important, we keep focusing on speed in a journey. As we all know that in a journey, direction is more important than speed. If the speed is slow, but the direction right, you would reach the destination late, but if the speed is high and direction wrong, you may reach somewhere else. We all know this simple fact. Still, the discussions about investments focus too much on speed – the rate of return and not the financial goal, which is the determinant of the direction.

Identify your financial goals and then plan to achieve those. Which scheme should be a part of the plan is a secondary question.

Money Position


On a scale from one to ten, exactly how happy are you with your money situation right now?

Grading criteria could be as follows:

0 - 2
If you are maintaining sufficient amount of emergency or contingency fund or if you are not at all dependent on your credit card.

3 - 4
If you have taken good amount of health cover by yourself (excluding employer provided cover) and adequate amount of life cover.

5 - 6
If you are not paying EMI which is more than 20% of your salary.

7 - 8
If you are investing regularly AS MUCH AS YOU CAN. And if you are also maintaining a decent 'asset allocation' keeping in mind your goals and risk appetite.

9 - 10
If you have a detailed financial plan ready and (most importantly) following it religiously and getting it reviewed regularly by your planner.

How to create a financial plan for a family which has a special child?



(1) Special contingency planning (this is over and above the regular contingency plan):

Contingency goal for a special child should include the following: 

Funds needed for meeting the expense of yearly therapies and funds needed for meeting the yearly school fees etc.

(2) Retirement Plan: 
Client should plan for their own retirement years like any other client. But while doing so they should quote separately their (a) current monthly household & lifestyle expenses and (b) current monthly expenses towards special child's therapy, school fees and other related expenses. 

Why to quote these expenses seperately? Because both these expense heads may have seperate inflation rate to be assumed for.

(3) Create a Private Trust: 

This is because when the beneficiary (in this case a special child) is not capable of managing the assets by himself or herself, then you need to create a Private Trust and appoint trustees who will manage the assets on behalf of the child (beneficiary).

The objective behind creating the trust - i.e. what is to be done with the assets which are transferred to the trust - should be very clearly mentioned in the trust deed and get that deed registered. If you want you can also appoint some professionals as trustee who have the expertise and experience of managing finance for special children. Make sure that your life insurance proceeds also go to the trust directly and not to the beneficiary.

What is to be done after your death with your other assets (which are not yet transferred to the trust as those are meant for your current or future use)? 

Create a Will and ensure that such assets will also go to the trust after your death and not directly passed on to the child. 

In Will you can also specify a "guardian" who will take care of your child in your absense. A guardian is supposed to take care of your child's day to day needs while a trustee is supposed to manage the finance for your child. Both trustee and guardian can be the same person or different persons.

(4) Make use of tax deductions:

There are certain tax related benefits for families who have special child as dependents. Check deduction U/S 80DD for medical treatment of disabled dependent (up to 1.25 lakh is allowed for severe disabilities and 75 k for non-severe disabilities.)

(5) Frequent reviews:

As this is not a regular financial plan frequent reviews (preferably a review every quarter) is recommended. Why? Because short term goals are very important here and are also subject to change any time.


Professor who can pocket Rs 450 cores.

He is rich and about to become richer, if not the richest “middle-class” professor.

On Friday, when Diageo — the world’s largest spirit manufacturer — makes an open offer to acquire an additional 26 per cent of Vijay Mallya’s United Spirits Limited (USL), a little-known professor in a Mumbai college will get Rs 450 crore if he chooses to sell.Reticent and media shy, Shivanand Mankekar, who leads a middle-class and largely anonymous life in the crummy by-lanes of Mumbai’s oldest residential area, Matunga, is the largest retail investor of USL.He is the owner of 1.02 per cent of the company, holding 14.89 lakh shares.

USL, owned by Royal Challengers Bangalore team boss Mallya, manufactures the McDowell’s No. 1 brand of spirits and bottled water. But beleaguered as he is by massive debts, Mallya is selling USL and Diageo, of the UK, is making a $1.9-billion bid to take the company over.

The open offer, Diageo’s second, pegs the per share price of USL at Rs 3,030.Diageo had earlier come out with an open offer for USL in May 2013 at a price of Rs 1,440 per share. But that offer failed.
Diageo owns 29 per cent of USL. With another 26 per cent of USL shares, it would take its total stake to 55 per cent, reducing Mallya to a minority shareholder but making Mankekar very rich.
Those who have known Mankekar, 62, for years say big gains like the one on his USL shares are not new for the management professor. Mankekar had made a killing and a name on the stock markets in 2002 when he made Rs 100 crore from Pantaloon shares worth Rs 1 crore.

“Over the years he has made big gains, which have hitched up his net worth, but his lifestyle remains the same. He lives in a 1,200sqft, three-bedroom apartment with his wife, son and daughter-in-law, and drives a Santro,” said a Bombay Stock Exchange trader who has known Mankekar for a long time.
Not many outside the Indian capital markets know of Mankekar, the only academic among the top 12 private investors in India.
He taught billionaire banker Uday Kotak at the Jamnalal Bajaj Institute of Management where he still works. Kotak, too, still considers him his “guru”, says a top official of Kotak Mahindra Bank where Kotak is a 50 per cent owner.
For years, he stayed in a 700sqft apartment in a co-operative housing society in Mahim’s crowded Mogul Lane. Two years back, after his son Kedar’s marriage, he moved with his family to a bigger apartment on Sakharam Keer Road, better known in Mumbai as Skeer Road.

Mankekar, though, is no skeer.
The Urban Dictionary might want to reinvent the meaning of “skeer”, which means “being broke”.Dalal Street insiders peg Mankekar’s current worth, along with that of his wife Laxmi and son Kedar, at over Rs 1,000 crore post the Diageo open offer.Till last month, when his name was splashed in the media after Diageo made the second open offer that will open on Friday, Mankekar’s neighbours at Matoshree Pearl — the Skeer Road multi-rise where he now lives — had no inkling of his worth.

“All we knew is that Mankekar teaches financial management and is a Sai Baba devotee. He is social and affable. His son owns a firm called Om Kedar Securities and also teaches management at Matunga’s Wellingkar institute,” says a neighbour.A corporate honcho, who was the professor’s batchmate at the Jamnalal Bajaj Institute from where both passed out in 1975, describes Mankekar as “reticent and shy, not the brightest of the class”.

“He dropped out of our radar after college. Next I know, he is a hot-shot investor,” he says.The Dalal street trader who has worked with Mankekar for a long time says that apart from teaching, the professor also ran a coaching academy and teacher training workshops. “He started off with small investments and gradually worked his way up after big gains he made with Pantaloons. It built his confidence.”

So much so that when the markets crashed wildly in May-June 2006, Mankekar was among the few investors who did not panic and held on to their stocks.“He has made his money from abrupt big hits. It has not always worked. He suffered heavily when the Wockhardt shares slumped. But, as a rule, whenever a stock starts performing well, he starts buying. That is his style,” says Calcutta-based investment strategist Basant Maheshwari, who has followed Mankekar’s market footprint over the years.Market regulars on Dalal Street say his knowledge base as a management professor makes him a savvy investor.

If Mankekar is India’s John Maynard Keynes, the legendary British economist who made substantial gains from his Wall Street investment, he is yet to propound his philosophy. But simple living and high earnings on the bourses is clearly his chosen path.
“I am a middle-class man and I am comfortable in my ordinary life. I do not like to interact with the media,” Mankekar told The Telegraph on Wednesday before quietly putting the phone down.
Mankekar is no Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, India’s celebrity professional investor and cult-hero in the mould of Warren Buffet.
Neither like investor Nimesh Shah — founder of Enam Securities — is he a Charles Munger-like recluse.

“He is below the public radar, almost the Everyman on Dalal Street. It is only his ability to pick the right stocks and stay on with them through thick and thin that has turned his day job as an academic into a hobby and a passing fancy with stocks into a full-fledged business,” says the CEO of a Mumbai-based stock-broking firm who works closely with Kedar’s company.

“The investments of the Mankekar family are in the name of Mankekar, his wife Laxmi and his son Kedar. Some investments are made in the name of Om Kedar Investments.”A staffer at Om Kedar says the Mankekars believe in a concentrated portfolio with only a few high-performance stocks. “They don’t look for low-priced stocks. Only dazzling performers matter and we go the extra mile in terms of paying big prices for them,” she says. “We follow a stock’s performance, then hone in on it and pay up whatever the price. From time to time, we bin the laggards in our portfolio.”
This ability to hold on to his nerve when the markets had crashed in a free-fall in 2006 is what got Mankekar noticed as an investor to watch out for.

On Friday, as Diageo hits the markets with its offer of Rs 3,030 for a stock Mankekar had picked up for about Rs 900 a few years back, many will be watching to see if the professor makes a killing. Or whether he holds out in search of a bigger bargain.

Tuesday, 17 May 2016

Indias Fastest Growing Economy

India has overtaken China as the fastest growing global economy – and according to Paul Sheard, chief economist at S&P Global India could grow up to 8% annually for the next 30 years. Speaking at the sixth annual Financial Leaders’ Forum in Saudi Arabia last week, Sheard was reported to back India’s long term growth potential, thanks in the most part to its favourable demographics. Being one of the world’s largest importers of oil, India has a net beneficiary of a falling oil price over the past two years, boosting public finances and bringing down living costs in the country. While the IMF forecasts India's GDP to grow at 7.5% over the next two years, New Delhi's Central Statistics Office expects the country's GDP to climb to 7.6% in 2016, which is an increase of 0.4% than what it achieved in 2014. Unlike most of its emerging market peers such as Brazil and Russia that are heavily relying on commodity-related exports, India economy is fundamentally driven by emerging middle class consumers in the country. Political stability is also one of the contributors, thanks to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s efforts to boost foreign investment and infrastructure. In Mumbai, at the Make in India Week exposition, attended by more than 10,000 government and business delegations from 72 countries, $220 billion of investment was committed, creating jobs and boosting manufacturing, according to Kunal Desai, manager of the Neptune India Fund. “Whilst it is debatable how much investment will materialise, we believe it goes some way to show the intent of policymakers – other emerging markets are not approaching foreign companies with this scale and coordination,” says Desai. Desai believes that the most interesting investments in the Indian market exist among mid-cap stocks, where he believes companies to “be far more nimble than their baggage-burdened large-cap peers”.

Which Emerging Market Funds Offer the Greatest India Exposure? 

Stewart Investors Global Emerging Markets has 20.6% of exposures to India equities, and the Silver Rated fund has generated 8.1% year to date. The fund has a 3.7% five years annualised return and a 10 -year annualised return of 9.8%. Morningstar analyst Simon Dorricott thinks that the fund remains an impressive offering. First State Stewart has been particularly successful at investing in the emerging markets of India and the stock selection skills was a largest positive, Dorricott adds. The fund charges an annual fee of 1.9%. JP Morgan Emerging Markets, a Bronze Rated fund holding 23% in India equities has gained 6.5% year to date. Although the approach of co-managers of the fund, Austin Forey and Leon Eidelman, may result in the fund underperforming for short periods if markets are driven by commodities, lower-quality names, or macro and political issues, it has generally not shown significant weakness over more meaningful periods, Dorricott said. The fund’s ongoing charge is 1.68% which is competitive compared with the median retail share class within the Global Emerging Markets Equity Morningstar Category.